In the first quarter of 2025, the new energy vehicle market continues to operate positively, with strong growth momentum in the passenger and commercial vehicle sectors, and sales increasing by nearly 50% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of the new energy heavy-duty truck track has exploded, with a year-on-year increase of over 1.5 times, especially in enterprises that have a first mover advantage in new energy heavy-duty trucks, which have begun to stir up the heavy-duty truck market pattern.

The development of new energy heavy-duty trucks will enter its first year in 2023, and 2025 will be the year of explosive growth. The installed capacity of batteries for new energy heavy-duty trucks has begun to occupy a higher proportion in the supply of battery companies, becoming a business growth point for battery companies. Last year, among the top 10 domestic power battery installed capacity companies, EVE Energy and Ruipu Lanjun had their third largest customers, Sany Group and XCMG Group, respectively. Heavy duty trucks contributed key installed capacity shares to the two top 10 companies.

Observing the development of new energy heavy-duty trucks based on the layout of battery enterprises, new energy heavy-duty trucks have not only become an incremental market for power batteries, but also another focal market for fast charging and battery swapping competition. Represented by CATL, BYD, EVE Energy, Guoxuan High Tech, and Juwan Technology Research, power battery companies are accelerating their layout around new energy heavy-duty trucks.

New energy is reversing the traditional heavy truck market pattern

Looking back at the development history of new energy heavy-duty trucks, in 2023, the Ministry of Finance announced that the reduction and exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles would be extended until 2027, with no upper limit on the amount of tax exemption for heavy-duty trucks, significantly reducing purchase costs. Under the combination of national and local policies, new energy heavy-duty trucks are gaining momentum.

Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the overall sales of heavy-duty trucks in Q1 2025 have slightly decreased, but the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks (mainly electric heavy-duty trucks) have increased significantly, with sales exceeding 23000 units, a year-on-year increase of at least 150%. The sales performance of top heavy truck companies is more significant, with Sany, XCMG, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and FAW's new energy heavy truck sales exceeding 3000 units in the first quarter, ranking among the top in the industry.

In terms of market structure, GGII pointed out that the overall heavy-duty truck market is highly mature, with CR5 occupying over 80% of the market share. However, there are still opportunities in the new energy heavy-duty truck track, with Sany, XCMG, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and FAW leading the way in new energy heavy-duty trucks. Especially, Sany and XCMG, which have crossed over from construction machinery to heavy-duty trucks, have become the leading new forces. Established heavy-duty truck companies such as Foton Motor, Shaanxi Automobile, and Dongfeng Motor are also catching up with the electrification transformation.

The advantages of electrification are becoming increasingly prominent in the current new energy heavy-duty truck market.

On the one hand, the maturity of power battery technology has significantly reduced the cost of purchasing new energy heavy-duty trucks. Coupled with strong subsidies for purchasing new energy heavy-duty trucks in various regions, models with 280 degree battery configurations are generally priced at around 400000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of at least 30%. The price of 420 degree high-power models has been reduced from around 700000 yuan to 450000 to 500000 yuan, and some models even have a price reduction of up to 200000 yuan per vehicle within six months.

On the other hand, in terms of long-term economic viability, the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) of new energy heavy-duty trucks is more advantageous. In terms of energy consumption cost, the cost per kilometer of pure electric heavy-duty trucks can be compressed to less than 1 yuan/kilometer, while traditional fuel powered heavy-duty trucks cost about 2-3 yuan/kilometer. The electricity consumption cost of new energy heavy-duty trucks is one-third of that of fuel powered heavy-duty trucks.

From the perspective of market penetration, the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks will reach 10% in 2024, and the industry expects to break through the critical point of 20% by 2025. In terms of installed power batteries, the installed capacity of new energy heavy-duty truck power batteries will double year-on-year in 2024, with Ningde Times, EVE Energy, and Ruipu Lanjun leading the way in installed capacity.

Fast charging and battery swapping go hand in hand

For new energy heavy-duty trucks, energy replenishment efficiency is their biggest pain point. Based on the specific layout of battery companies, the two energy replenishment solutions of fast charging and battery swapping are currently on par.

In terms of fast charging, battery companies such as CATL, BYD, Guoxuan High Tech, EVE Energy, Zhongchuang Chuanghang, and Juwan Technology Research have launched fast charging commercial vehicle batteries for commercial scenarios of new energy heavy-duty trucks. At the same time, companies such as BYD and Huawei are accelerating the construction of supercharging networks and explicitly targeting the fields of new energy heavy-duty trucks and commercial vehicles.

In March 2025, BYD released the "Megawatt Flash Charging Plan", launching the world's first fully liquid cooled megawatt flash charging terminal system with a maximum output capacity of 1360kW, supporting 10% to 80% power replenishment within 10 minutes (increasing range by 400-500 kilometers), and plans to build more than 4000 megawatt flash charging stations nationwide, covering highway networks and core cities, clearly supporting efficient energy replenishment of new energy heavy-duty trucks and commercial vehicles. New energy heavy-duty trucks can achieve flexible energy replenishment through four gun charging technology (supporting single gun, dual gun, and four gun charging).

Huawei has launched a megawatt level charging product with a maximum power of 1.5 megawatts, which can recharge 20 degrees per minute and fully charge heavy truck batteries in 15 minutes. This technology is designed specifically for commercial vehicles, such as electric heavy-duty trucks, to solve their pain points of large battery capacity and long charging time.

In terms of power replacement, Professor Sun Fengchun, an academician of the CAE Member, had previously expressed a systematic view in the field of new energy heavy truck power replacement mode. He pointed out that adopting a vehicle electric separation mode for battery swapping heavy trucks can significantly reduce the initial purchase cost. Battery assets are held by operators, and users do not need to bear the depreciation risk of the battery's entire life cycle. Combined with the advantage of lower electricity prices than oil prices, the comprehensive operating cost can be reduced by 30000 to 60000 yuan per year.

At the same time, Academician Sun Fengchun pointed out that there is still a lack of unified battery standards for heavy-duty trucks, which leads to poor compatibility of battery swapping stations; Heavy asset investment, with a single battery swapping station costing over one million yuan; There are three challenges to improving the mechanism for distributing benefits among operators, car companies, and users.

Recently, CATL and Guoxuan High Tech have disclosed plans related to battery swapping heavy-duty trucks, improving the battery swapping heavy-duty truck ecosystem.

In April, Guoxuan High Tech unveiled the world's first modular charging and swapping system at the "ESIE2025 International Energy Storage Exhibition", providing a "five minute high-speed swapping" solution for specialized vehicles such as pure electric heavy-duty trucks, and supporting customized smart energy management systems. The system adopts a modular design, allowing users to flexibly adjust the number of battery packs according to their needs, achieving "electric car searching" and improving charging and swapping efficiency.

Its construction cost is only a quarter of that of a fixed charging and swapping station, and it can be widely used in scenarios such as semi-trailer tractors, highway service area energy replenishment, and emergency rescue site power supply.

Ningde Times' "Qiji Battery Swap" is a previous solution for swapping heavy-duty trucks, which includes three modules: Qiji Battery Swap Block, Qiji Battery Swap Station, and Qiji Cloud Platform. It only takes a few minutes to achieve heavy-duty truck battery swapping. Without considering fluctuations in oil prices, a heavy-duty truck with an annual mileage of 200000 kilometers can save a total operating cost of 30000 to 60000 yuan per year. And it realizes on-demand power distribution, allowing users to freely choose 1-3 batteries for different road conditions, loads, and other scenarios, improving operational efficiency.

On April 3rd, Ningde Times signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Highway Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport to address the pain points of inconsistent standards for battery swapping heavy-duty trucks. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in battery swapping technology research and development, policy reserve research, standard system construction, and scenario application, and work together to tackle the challenges of battery swapping standardization.