The new energy passenger car market will maintain high-speed growth in 2024. According to the data from the 12 new car announcements for the whole year, the number of power battery supporting models has significantly increased. At the same time, the trend of supply chain centralization is becoming more apparent, and the significance of "two-way selection" between battery supporting and important vehicle models is further highlighted.

Firstly, the total number of supporting vehicle models has significantly increased, and the market for power batteries continues to expand.

In 2024, a total of 379-390 batches of announcements were released, involving 929 new energy passenger vehicles, an increase of 145 models compared to 2023, demonstrating the sustained strong market demand.

However, the number of battery companies participating in supporting projects has decreased from 28 last year to 25, and companies such as Weilan and Lishen have not been able to continue their cooperation in the passenger car field.

The market concentration continues to rise, with a supporting CR5 of 79.9% in 2024 and an even higher installed CR5 of 84.2% from January to November.

Among them, CATL has demonstrated strong market coverage with 46 car companies and a matching volume of 386 models, an increase of 90 models compared to 2023, including 381 individual matching models.

Guoxuan High tech has cooperated with 25 car companies, providing 95 supporting models. With a wide network of cooperation, it has demonstrated significant advantages in the relationship between car manufacturers.

The number of supporting models for Zhongchuang Aviation has increased to 108, an increase of 27 from 2023, and it maintains stable cooperation with 15 car companies, further increasing its market share to 11.6%.

Fudi Battery continues to make efforts in the field of external supply, with 13 supporting car companies and an overall market share steadily increasing to over 12%.

At the same time, EVE Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, and Honeycomb Energy provide power battery matching for more than 10 car companies, further expanding their market influence.

Xinwangda and Zhengli New Energy have also shown a steady development trend through the increase in the number of vehicle matching models.

Secondly, the supply chain choices of car companies are becoming more centralized.

The choices of car companies in the power battery supply chain are gradually becoming more clear and centralized. This year, the number of car models that Ningde Times and other companies jointly provide has decreased from 20 in 2023 to 5.

In addition, the rise of self-developed battery companies by car companies, including Freddie, Honeycomb, Jidian, Anchi, Yaoning (Geely series), Yinpai, Juwan Technology Research (GAC series), Deyi New Energy (Chery series), etc., has provided a total of 179 models, an increase of 19 models year-on-year, accounting for 19.2% of the market share.

In the installed capacity data from January to November, Jidian, Yaoning, Anchi, Hongxiang (owned by Sany Heavy Industry), and Yinpai all entered the top 15, with a total installed capacity of 9.98GWh and a market share of 2.9%.

Geely Yaoning and Jidian have performed outstandingly, with a total installed capacity of 6.9 GWh, surpassing LG New Energy's installed capacity in the domestic market during the same period, demonstrating the rapid growth potential of self-developed battery systems by car companies.

Thirdly, the importance of battery matching in betting on popular car models has further increased.

The sales volume of vehicle models directly affects the installed capacity of battery companies, and the importance of matching selection is increasingly prominent.

LG New Energy achieves efficient matching of over 2GWh installed capacity for a single model by centrally binding Tesla MODEL 3 and MODEL Y; Brands such as Geely Yaoning and Fudi Battery have also achieved a single vehicle installation efficiency of over 0.5GWh through the binding of high sales models.

If calculated based on a production capacity of 2GWh per unit line, battery companies can achieve full production and support 4-8 vehicle models. In addition, with the fluctuation of market demand, some popular new cars this year have shown a trend of shifting from diversified supply models to deepening cooperation with mature production line enterprises to ensure stable supply and cost advantages.

This also means that promoting standardization of battery products and improving production line efficiency will become a key direction.

Some battery companies plan to reach a consensus with automotive companies on standardized products by 2025, in conjunction with the application of super production lines (with a single production line capacity of 5GWh), to more efficiently meet market demand.

Overall, the power battery industry will continue to develop in 2024 under the dual drive of vehicle expansion and market concentration, but the competitive landscape is becoming increasingly severe.

In the future, with the advancement of standardization and efficiency, as well as the rise of self-developed battery systems by vehicle manufacturers, the industry will enter a critical period of technological innovation and market competition.