The electrification of commercial vehicles is becoming a hot topic in the industry.

As an important exhibition in the global commercial vehicle field, the 2024 Hanover International Transport Expo (HANNOVER) held in Hanover, Germany recently attracted about 1700 companies from more than 40 countries and regions around the world, showcasing the latest research and development achievements, cutting-edge technologies, and solutions in the field of commercial vehicles and spare parts.

During this period, Chinese battery companies, including CATL, EVE Energy, and Ruipu Lanjun, have introduced new heavy-duty products, injecting new vitality into the commercial vehicle electrification market. Several local European companies have also showcased new electric trucks, pushing the popularity of commercial vehicles to a new high.

Looking back at the domestic market, the commercial vehicle market is rising against the backdrop of shifting gears and reducing speeds in new energy vehicles. According to market data, from January to August this year, the cumulative year-on-year growth of new energy commercial vehicles was 75.3%, with a penetration rate of 17%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of vehicle models, the penetration rate of the new energy micro customer market is 12.3%; The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks is 10.5%, and the penetration rate of new energy light trucks is 14.6%.

In the global market, according to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, electric trucks will account for 1.5% of the European truck market share in 2023, a significant increase from the previous year's 0.8%.

In the face of increasingly severe climate challenges, the electrification of commercial vehicles is an important way to reduce emissions and achieve climate goals. For example, in China, commercial vehicles account for less than 20% of the total number of automobiles, but contribute over 75% of the greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles; In the EU region, heavy vehicles alone account for 25% of the total greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation.

In addition to promoting zero carbon transformation, from a cost perspective, the electrification of commercial vehicles can also contribute to the long-term reduction of energy costs for commercial vehicles.

Taking light trucks as an example, the cost of purchasing a regular fuel light truck is around 110000 yuan, while the cost of purchasing a new energy light truck of the same model is around 170000 yuan. Within an 8-year lifecycle, new energy light trucks can save more than 200000 yuan in costs compared to fuel light trucks.

It is imperative to accelerate the electrification transformation of commercial vehicles, both domestically and internationally.

Global commercial electrification is underway

The global penetration rate of commercial vehicle electrification is relatively low, but governments around the world are accelerating their deployment in promoting the transformation of commercial vehicle electrification.

In April of this year, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a three-stage greenhouse gas emission standard for heavy-duty vehicles, which limits the emissions of different heavy-duty vehicles and aims to reduce the production of 1 billion tons of greenhouse gases over the next 30 years.

In May of this year, the European Council passed carbon dioxide emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles and required that by 2025, the emissions of most newly produced trucks be reduced by 15% compared to the 2019 reporting period, by 30% by 2030, by 65% by 2035, and by 90% by 2040. After this revision, the standard has become one of the most stringent greenhouse gas standards in the global heavy-duty vehicle industry.

In China, relevant departments have stated that a policy system for green and low-carbon development in the transportation sector has been established. Multiple departments have put forward clear requirements for vigorously developing the green and low-carbon industry of new energy vehicles, and firmly adhere to the zero emission development path of commercial vehicle enterprises.

At the same time, more and more car companies and battery manufacturers are joining the "battle" of commercial vehicle electrification in the industrial chain support.

Daimler Trucks has announced its plan to sell 30000 electric trucks by 2030, accounting for 50% of the company's annual sales in the European market.

As a European commercial vehicle giant, Volvo Group's electrification will start from the heavy-duty truck field and then migrate heavy-duty truck electrification technology to other business areas. At present, Volvo Trucks has launched multiple series including FL, FE, FM, FH, etc.

Markus Hein, a member of the board of directors of Bosch Group and chairman of Bosch Intelligent Mobility Group, stated that Bosch hopes to seize the huge opportunities brought by global freight growth and the transformation to alternative powertrain systems, and will restructure its commercial vehicle business within Bosch Intelligent Mobility Group.

Domestically, Foton Motor, Dongfeng Motor, FAW Jiefang, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Jianghuai Automobile, and Jiangling Motors continue to make efforts in the field of new energy commercial vehicles.

As supply chain enterprises, CATL and Zhongchuang Aviation have released a series of new commercial battery products and expanded their battery brand influence through the Hanover International Transport Expo.

CATL released the Tianxing Supercharging Edition and Tianxing Long Range Edition batteries for light logistics commercial vehicles, as well as the Tianxing Bus Edition battery in July this year. Among them, the Tianxing Logistics - Long Life Edition battery can quickly replenish energy through 4C supercharging, with a 60% replenishment time in 12 minutes.

EVE Energy has released its commercial vehicle supercharging battery - open-source battery, covering different commercial vehicle models such as heavy trucks and light trucks. It is reported that the battery adopts 3C supercharging technology, which can achieve 20% to 80% charging in 15 minutes; The cycle life reaches 7000 times, which is about twice the lifespan of conventional products.

EVE Energy also mentioned its first global cooperative operating model (CLS) landing project, which has started construction in Mississippi, USA, and will build a lithium iron phosphate battery cell factory with an annual production capacity of about 21 GWh. The project is jointly invested by EVE Energy, Daimler Trucks, Paka, and Cummins. The joint venture factory will obtain the license for the production, manufacturing, and sales of battery cell products from EVE Energy, and pay the licensing fee as agreed. The batteries produced will mainly be used in the North American commercial vehicle field.

Ruipu Lanjun has released its commercial vehicle battery system "BIG BANK". This system is specially developed for the European market and has flexible and versatile combination solutions to meet the performance requirements of heavy/medium/light trucks in different scenarios. It is reported that the energy density of the battery system exceeds 210Wh/kg, and the main 500kWh system can support heavy-duty truck models with a range exceeding 500km, with the longest range exceeding 600km.

Obstacles to the Electrification of Commercial Vehicles

However, it is also worth noting that the commercial vehicle market is relatively small, and there are some difficulties in further increasing the penetration rate of electrification.

Compared to the passenger car market, commercial vehicles have significant differences in chassis load capacity, driving efficiency, range, power performance, and other aspects. Therefore, there are certain differences in the architecture of the three electric technology, and the corresponding battery technology is also different from that of passenger cars.

Liu Xiaoshi, Executive Deputy Secretary General of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, recently stated that "the electrification of commercial vehicles faces three major difficulties. Firstly, the use scenarios are complex, with high requirements for functionality, performance, and reliability, which are difficult to meet with existing electrification solutions. Secondly, the economic requirements are high, and battery and related costs constrain marketization. Thirdly, the energy replenishment facilities are not perfect, especially for heavy commercial vehicles. In order to accelerate the green transformation of commercial vehicles and logistics, more diversified electric technology routes need to be explored.

To address these challenges, it is necessary to accelerate battery technology innovation and develop battery technologies specifically for commercial vehicles. Nowadays, more and more battery manufacturers are realizing this and developing specialized battery technologies to improve performance such as energy density, cycle life, and charge discharge rate.

In addition, facing the issue of commercial vehicle energy replenishment, it is necessary to accelerate infrastructure construction, investment in charging stations and battery swapping stations, and layout the main operating routes and nodes of commercial vehicles to ensure convenient charging and energy replenishment of vehicles.

The overall base of electric commercial vehicles is small and the growth rate is fast. After solving the problems of commercial vehicle battery technology and energy replenishment, global commercial vehicles are expected to usher in a new explosive node, which will further drive the growth of lithium battery shipments.